At least not yet. But the conclusion being drawn by many a reporter in our industry would have you believe otherwise. "Fewer Opioid Related Deaths in States with Medical Marijuana" read one headline.
A study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association at the end of August is causing a lot of confusion in our space. The abstract of the study (which is, unfortunately, all that most reporters seem to have read) states the following: "States with medical cannabis laws had a 24.8% lower mean annual opioid overdose mortality rate... compared with states without medical cannabis laws." One has to crack the cover and actually read the study to understand this conclusion results from a multi-variate linear regression model that compares behavior of individual states that have medical cannabis laws to what the behavior might have been in that state without such laws. I have absolutely no issue with the the methodology or the related conclusion. I'm a data geek and I love a good linear regression model as much as the next guy.
But on page 3 of the study, you quickly learn that the actual observed historical data tells the opposite story. States with medical cannabis laws exhibit a consistently higher opioid overdose mortality rate vs. states without such laws. Marcus Bachhuber, the lead author of the study, points out that its hard to compare states to each other and much more statistically relevant and reliable to compare states to themselves (what does California look like vs. what we would expect California to look like without a medical marijuana law?) This is a perfectly valid academic exercise, but not one from which we should be drawing policy conclusions. Dr. Bachhuber himself writes in the study, "In summary, although we found a lower mean annual rate of opioid analgesic mortality in states with medical cannabis laws [again, according to the linear regression model, not the observed historical data], a direct causal link cannot be established."
Kudos to Ben Miller at WorkCompCentral, who actually read the entire study and presented a balanced view of the issue in his article yesterday. I was interviewed for and quoted in the article and stated the case much like I'm stating it here. I was impressed that Ben was willing to dig beyond abstract and take his story in a direction he may not have originally intended. We need more reporters like him in our industry.
Bottom line: Medical marijuana laws cannot be said to lead to a reduction in opioid overdose deaths.
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